The word tariffs has sent shockwaves through the freight industry once again. With uncertainty surrounding new trade policies, carriers and brokers moving goods between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico are bracing for potential disruptions. 

The latest round of proposed tariffs, set for April 2, could reshape cross-border freight operations, affecting rates, costs, and supply chain efficiency. While compliance under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has helped many shippers avoid tariffs, the long-term outlook remains murky. 

This blog will rundown the possible effects of tariffs on freight rates, costs, specific industries, the economy at large, and how carriers and brokers can respond to a highly uncertain supply chain climate. 

The critical role of cross-border freight 

Cross-border trucking isn’t just a niche market—it’s a pillar of North American trade. In January alone, U.S. trade with Canada and Mexico reached $134.4 billion. Mexico was the U.S.’s top trade partner, contributing nearly $70 billion in trade, followed closely by Canada with $65 billion. Estimates show that about 70 percent of that trade is moved by truck. 

As nearshoring has grown in recent years, more brokers and carriers are expanding into cross-border operations. The Port of Laredo, one of the busiest U.S.-Mexico gateways, sees over 8,600 northbound truckloads cross daily, with projections pointing to an annual growth rate of 5-7% over the next half-decade. However, new tariffs could slow this momentum, adding layers of cost and complexity. 

What tariffs mean for freight rates and costs 

If widespread Canada and Mexico tariffs move forward on April 2, carriers and brokers should expect significant operational and financial impacts. 

Higher freight rates close to tariff deadlines 

In the lead-up to previous tariff deadlines, spot rates for U.S.-Canada dry van shipments spiked by 18%, while refrigerated freight jumped an astonishing 35%. Data from DAT Freight & Analytics shows that load volumes on the Toronto to Chicago route surged 57% week-over-week before recent tariff deadlines as shippers rushed to beat potential implementation dates. 

Increased costs for shippers 

Companies have been rushing to qualify for tariff exemptions under USMCA compliance, but the certification process requires time and resources. Those who don’t comply could face a 25% hike on imported goods. According to industry surveys, prolonged tariff disruptions could lead to reduced cross-border freight volumes and potentially job losses. 

Equipment cost hikes 

The American Trucking Associations estimates that tariffs could increase the price of a new truck by up to $35,000—a significant burden that could put new equipment out of reach for small and mid-sized carriers, further straining an industry that’s not yet recovered from a two-year-long freight recession. 

Supply chain disruptions 

The uncertainty has already led to a “rush and pause” phenomenon, with companies stockpiling inventory to get ahead of tariff implementation. This pattern creates short-term volume spikes followed by periods of slower freight movement, making capacity planning exceptionally difficult for carriers. 

Industry-specific effects 

Different sectors within the freight ecosystem are likely to experience varying degrees of impact. 

Automotive sector 

Auto and auto parts shipments are particularly vulnerable to cross-border tariffs. The complex supply chains in this industry often involve components crossing borders multiple times before final assembly, potentially multiplying the tariff impact. While some automakers have received exemptions, long-term implementation could reshape North American vehicle production networks. 

Agricultural products 

Produce and perishable goods shipments from Mexico have shown resilience in the face of tariff threats, as food demand remains relatively stable, and costs can often be passed to consumers. However, carriers specializing in these lanes may see compressed margins as overall costs increase. 

Manufacturing and raw materials 

With universal 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum still in effect, manufacturing-related freight faces significant challenges. Companies in this sector may accelerate nearshoring initiatives to mitigate tariff impacts, potentially creating new freight corridors and opportunities for carriers that can adapt quickly. 

How can carriers and brokers navigate the changes? 

While uncertainty seems to be the only sure thing in 2025’s freight economy, carriers and brokers can take proactive steps to ensure that operations and business activity are as normal as can be expected. 

Leverage automation 

Streamlining paperwork and payment processes with digital tools can help mitigate delays caused by customs slowdowns and tariff-related bottlenecks. Advanced automation solutions that reduce manual work and simplify audit processes are already helping operators manage the complexities more efficiently. 

Diversify freight lanes 

Companies like Estes Express Lines and Pitt Ohio have expanded their service offerings to include next-day services and dedicated lanes that can better absorb tariff shocks. By exploring alternative shipping routes and forming strategic partnerships, carriers can reduce reliance on any single trade corridor. 

Enhanced real-time monitoring 

Given the fluid nature of tariff policies, keeping a finger on the pulse of regulatory updates is critical. Fleet managers and brokerage experts are increasingly investing in analytics and market intelligence tools that provide up-to-the-minute insights into shifting freight volumes, rate changes, and customs delays. 

Strategic capacity management 

With the potential for volume fluctuations, carriers should develop flexible capacity strategies. This might include diversifying equipment types, cross-training drivers for different types of loads, or exploring asset-sharing partnerships during low-volume periods. 

USMCA certification support 

Forward-thinking carriers are offering support services to help shippers navigate USMCA certification requirements. By positioning themselves as partners in compliance, not just transportation providers, carriers can strengthen customer relationships during uncertain times. 

Broader economic implications 

Beyond immediate operational challenges, new tariff policies could have far-reaching economic consequences. 

Potential macroeconomic slowdown 

Industry economists, including ATA’s Bob Costello, warn that sustained implementation of the proposed tariffs brings “a real risk of macro recession.” As tariffs essentially function as taxes, they can drive up prices, reduce consumer purchasing power, and ultimately decrease freight volumes. 

Shifting global trade patterns 

If tariff differentials create competitive advantages for certain regions, freight patterns could realign accordingly. European or Japanese exporters might gain market share at the expense of Canadian and Mexican producers, potentially creating new opportunities for carriers or intermodal operations with diverse international networks. 

Employment and capacity effects 

In an industry already dealing with driver turnover, tariff-related slowdowns could exacerbate workforce challenges. The Canadian Trucking Alliance reports that prolonged tariffs could lead to significant layoffs, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape as smaller carriers struggle to maintain operations. 

Turning tariff turbulence into strategic advantage 

By leveraging automation, staying agile in operational planning, and maintaining clear communication with vendors and customers, carriers and brokers can position themselves not just to survive the tariff turbulence, but to emerge stronger on the other side. 

As North American trade continues to evolve, staying ahead of policy changes isn’t merely a competitive advantage—it’s a necessity for long-term success.