As the calendar inches closer to Q4 and 2025, there’s a measure of optimism in the freight industry. After a prolonged downturn, some are even suggesting the freight recession might finally be over. But before the industry can fully celebrate, a looming threat could derail this recovery: a potential port strike by the International Longshoremen’s Union (ILA).

Set to begin on October 1, this strike could have far-reaching consequences, not just for freight but for the broader U.S. economy. With some 45,000 dockworkers set to man the picket line, the stakes are high. 

The background 

The ILA, which represents dockworkers from New England to Houston, is demanding wage increases and, more critically, a halt to the introduction of automation technology at unionized ports. The dockworkers’ union is at odds with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents port employers. If the two sides fail to reach a deal, the ILA could initiate its first labor stoppage since 1977. 

Although the White House has the authority to intervene and impose a “cooling-off” period under the Taft-Hartley Act, it has shown no indication of doing so at this time. This lack of intervention means that a strike remains a very real possibility, with serious consequences for the fragile freight recovery. 

What’s at stake? 

The ports affected by this potential strike handle 43% of all U.S. imports, moving everything from cars and electronics to food and clothing. The economic toll could be staggering: hundreds of millions of dollars lost per day, per port, according to an analysis by Mitre Corporation. 

The global impact could also be significant. These ports account for 1.7% of the world’s containership fleet each week, and a shutdown could cause ripples across multiple supply chains. Industries that rely on timely imports — such as the automotive, technology, and retail sectors — would feel the pressure almost immediately. Costs for consumer goods could rise as inventory delays and backlogs mount. 

With the holiday season approaching, the delay of goods at these crucial ports could also disrupt retail shipments, leading to shortages on shelves and frustrated customers. For every day the ILA workers are on strike, experts estimate a backlog of 4-6 days to get operations back on track once the strike ends. The longer the strike lasts, the more difficult it will be for shippers, carriers, brokers, and forwarders to make up for lost time. 

Not every U.S. port is affected — but that doesn’t mean smooth shipping 

It’s important to note that not all coastal ports are included in this strike threat. U.S. West Coast ports, represented by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU), successfully negotiated a six-year contract in the summer of 2023. Per the National Retail Federation (NRF), some shippers have already begun redirecting their goods to the West Coast to preemptively avoid the impact of the ILA strike. 

Atlantic Canadian ports, such as Halifax and Montreal, may also see increased volumes as businesses hedge their bets. This shift in strategy may help avoid some of the immediate consequences, but it presents new challenges, especially for freight brokers and carriers. 

Impacts on carriers and freight brokers 

For drayage-focused or multimodal carriers operating on the East Coast, the impact of shifting shipments to the West Coast or Canada could be profound. The cost of rerouting shipments over such long distances could lead to significant increases in man-hours, logistical complexity, and operational expenses. Many carriers could find themselves under increased pressure, potentially losing money in the process. 

Freight brokers would also be thrust into uncertainty. Should a strike occur, brokers may be forced to work with unfamiliar carriers and monitor new routes, leading to increased risk and unpredictability in their operations. For many brokers, especially those focused on East and Gulf Coast lanes, this could mean reshuffling significant elements of their business, at least for the duration of the strike. 

Is there hope for a resolution? 

Despite the looming threat, there’s still a chance for a resolution. Employers represented by the USMX have expressed optimism that an agreement can be reached before the strike deadline. However, there’s no clarity on when the two sides last met for bargaining, adding to the uncertainty. As the clock ticks down, freight and logistics professionals will be holding their breath, hoping for a deal that keeps the ports open and the economy moving forward. 

A fragile recovery hangs in the balance 

At a time when the freight economy is finally showing signs of recovery, a strike by the ILA could be a devastating setback. The economic toll, coupled with the disruption to supply chains and the additional costs incurred by carriers and brokers, could stifle the optimism that has been building in recent months. 

While there is still hope that a resolution will be reached, it’s clear that the freight industry must brace itself for whatever comes next. The outcome of this labor dispute will have far-reaching implications, not only for those directly involved but for the entire freight recovery as a whole.