The less-than-truckload (LTL) market is navigating a complex landscape in 2025, characterized by operational contrasts among major players. While carriers like Old Dominion forecasted “not just growth but prosperity” for 2025, others like TFI International described Q4 2024 as “a disaster” for the company’s LTL division.  

Market conditions remain unpredictable, with lingering economic uncertainties and industry restructuring still unfolding. Amid this shifting environment, five key trends are likely to impact the LTL space this year. 

1. Capacity and rates: A market in transition 

After an extended freight recession, the LTL market is experiencing a gradual but uneven rebound. General rate increases (GRIs) are in effect, with most major carriers implementing mid-single-digit hikes—ABF Freight and FedEx Freight announced 5.9% increases, while Saia implemented a more aggressive 7.9% and Old Dominion a more modest 4.9%. 

Those that strategically absorbed portions of Yellow’s former network, like Saia (which opened 21 terminals and relocated 9 more in 2024), are seeing tonnage increases of 12.2% year-over-year in February 2025. Meanwhile, established national carriers like Old Dominion reported tonnage declines of 7.1% for the same period, adopting a more patient approach with approximately 30% excess capacity as they await more favorable market conditions. 

2. The rise of AI and automation 

Technology adoption in LTL is accelerating, particularly with AI-driven tools. Carriers and brokers/3PLs are investing in freight management systems that leverage artificial intelligence to optimize routes, predict service disruptions, and enhance asset utilization. These investments are becoming crucial differentiators in a market where operational efficiency directly impacts margins. 

Additionally, AI-powered automation platforms are cutting invoice lag times and reducing manual data entry in the back office. Forward-thinking carriers can also take advantage of advanced load workflows that save time for drivers, fleet managers, and the back office. 

3. NMFTA freight classification overhaul 

The National Motor Freight Traffic Association’s reclassification update, set to take effect on July 19, represents a huge shift in LTL operations. This change, which has been in planning for over a decade, standardizes density ratings and will impact over 40% of products shipped. 

The new system emphasizes density as the primary pricing factor while still considering the traditional pillars of handling, stowability, and liability. Density ratings are expanding from 11 subprovisions to 13, with approximately 2,000 items being culled from a list of 5,000 as part of this comprehensive revision. 

For shippers, these changes require immediate attention. Industry experts strongly recommend: 

• Reviewing freight characteristics for all commodities 
• Ensuring accurate product dimension and weight data 
• Understanding how current freight-all-kinds (FAK) agreements will be impacted 
• Building dialogue with carriers to understand cost implications 

4. Industry consolidation and corporate restructuring 

The LTL landscape continues to transform through strategic mergers, acquisitions, and corporate restructuring. FedEx Freight’s planned spin-off into a standalone publicly traded company by 2026 stands as one of the most significant developments, with analysts projecting it could unlock up to $20 billion in market value. 

This move will likely intensify competition as the newly independent FedEx Freight pursues aggressive growth strategies, including hiring 300 additional sales professionals and implementing enhanced pricing systems. 

Meanwhile, the final chapters of Yellow’s bankruptcy continue to reshape regional networks. In December 2024, Estes acquired 939 doors across nine states, while R&L secured a 304-door facility in New York. After three rounds of real estate auctions, over 160 former Yellow terminals have been sold, with a fourth auction scheduled for early 2025. The pace at which these facilities return to service will significantly impact regional capacity throughout the year. 

Industry experts anticipate continued consolidation, with higher interest rates and real estate challenges favoring acquisitions over new terminal development.  

5. External headwinds: Economic uncertainty and policy shifts 

Beyond industry-specific challenges, broader economic factors are influencing LTL operations. New tariffs under the second Trump administration present a double-edged sword for carriers. While they could stimulate domestic manufacturing, they also risk disrupting integrated North American supply chains. 

Old Dominion CEO Marty Freeman acknowledged this tension, noting that while regulatory rollbacks could create a more favorable business environment, tariff proposals on imports from Canada and Mexico could complicate cross-border shipping. “While trade disputes remain on the radar, we’re optimistic about the ability of all parties to reach resolutions that prioritize mutual economic growth,” he stated. 

Economic indicators present a mixed but generally improving picture for LTL demand. Manufacturing data shows the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) hovering around expansion territory at 50.3 in February, following January’s positive reading that broke 26 consecutive months of sub-50 readings.  

What’s next for LTL? 

While uncertainty looms over the LTL sector, carriers that balance strategic patience with technological innovation will likely emerge strongest. The industry faces a pivotal year as it adapts to classification changes, absorbs redistributed capacity, and navigates economic crosscurrents. 

For shippers, the key to success lies in data mastery, carrier partnership, and proactive adaptation to the density-based pricing paradigm. Those who invest in understanding their freight characteristics and collaborate transparently with carriers will be best positioned to optimize costs while maintaining service quality. 

The LTL market in 2025 requires both tactical agility and strategic foresight—qualities that will separate industry leaders from those left behind as this critical transportation segment continues its evolution.