For the first time in its 21-year history, “driver shortage” didn’t crack the Top 10 overall concerns in the American Transportation Research Institute’s annual Critical Issues in the Trucking Industry survey. So why do recruiting and retention still appear to be challenges for fleets? 

A freight market sending mixed signals and a recruiting environment where the old playbook no longer applies don’t help. 

After four years of overcapacity and soft demand, driver retention doesn’t feature in industry conversations the way it did during boom times. But that doesn’t mean the challenge has disappeared.  

A fickle freight market  

Let’s be honest: anyone making definitive predictions about how freight and trucking will behave throughout 2026 is probably getting ahead of themselves. 

On one hand, the DOT’s enforcement actions around non-domiciled CDLs and English language proficiency requirements could pull significant capacity out of the market. Some estimates suggest as many as 200,000 non-U.S. residents could lose their ability to operate commercially, which would mean more loads chasing fewer drivers. 

However, those rules have been halted in the court system. We can’t count on them going into full effect, and even if they do, the timeline remains unclear. 

Meanwhile, capacity may already be leaving the market through less visible channels. Dr. Jason Miller at Michigan State University recently pointed out that dry van truckload capacity appears to be declining even while operator counts hold steady.  

Some carriers continue to struggle: a 91-year-old LTL carrier in the Midwest shut down recently, and a North Carolina fleet ended operations over Christmas, leaving workers scrambling. Yet, tender rejections were up massively in recent weeks and appear to be outpacing expected seasonal spikes. 

Amid a market where narratives and data don’t always paint a succinct picture or align, the demand for drivers could shift quickly in either direction. 

The driver shortage narrative has shifted 

For years, “driver shortage” was a popular explanation for labor issues in trucking. That narrative has taken some hits. 

According to ATRI’s 2025 survey of both drivers and carriers, driver shortage dropped to No. 12 overall. The economy, lawsuit abuse reform, and insurance costs now top the list. New concerns like English proficiency enforcement, diesel emissions regulations, and AI in trucking have also entered the conversation. 

Even if the macro-level shortage narrative has cooled, finding and retaining qualified drivers remains a top- five concern when only considering motor carriers’ responses in the ATRI survey. Meanwhile, driver training standards made the top 10 when isolating driver respondents, indicating drivers expect their peers to be more qualified and ready for the road. 

The incentive problem 

In a strong freight market, carriers can help drivers with enticements like sign-on bonuses, pay increases, and newer equipment. These incentives work when fleets have the capital to afford them. 

In a down or recovering market where margins are razor-thin and rate environments are highly volatile? That’s a different story. 

Many carriers simply don’t have the margin to compete on compensation right now. And some are getting creative as a result. Nussbaum Transportation, for example, has stopped offering sign-on bonuses entirely. Instead, they offer drivers a $1,000 “early exit” payment if they decide within the first 90 days that the company isn’t the right fit. Joe Anderson, director of recruiting at Nussbaum said of the payment, “It shows that we don’t need to offer a bunch of money just to get a driver to come here. We’re confident that you can make a career here and be successful.” 

That approach won’t work for every fleet. But it reflects a broader truth: when traditional cash incentives aren’t available, carriers need to find other ways to stand out. 

Technology can be a strong recruitment and retention tool 

Today’s drivers expect workplace technology to match or surpass what they use in their personal lives. Younger generations have grown up with apps that are fast, intuitive, and responsive. A clunky dispatch system that requires multiple taps to complete basic tasks isn’t just annoying; it signals that a carrier hasn’t invested in its people. 

Research backs this up. According to the World Economic Forum, Gen Z workers expect their workplace tools to match the usability of consumer apps. And Ivanti research found that 55% of workers say negative experiences with workplace technology directly impact mood and morale. Drivers aren’t any different from office desk jockeys in this regard. 

What do drivers want from their tools? The list is pretty consistent: clear routing and task information, real-time updates when conditions change, offline functionality that doesn’t lose data in dead zones, visibility into driver performance, quick access to support when something goes wrong, and a one-stop shop to eliminate app switching. 

Fleets that invest in meeting these expectations with tech gain an advantage in retention and recruiting. Faster onboarding, shorter training cycles, and higher satisfaction scores in post-hire surveys all translate to lower turnover and reduced hiring costs. 

Technology that simplifies from cab to cash 

The driver’s experience is both about what happens behind the wheel and the entire workflow, including from accepting a load to getting paid for it. 

For example, mobile tools that let drivers scan documents from the cab eliminate paperwork bottlenecks. Integrations allow drivers to access everything they need to complete their trips on one platform. Workflow automation reduces the back-and-forth that delays invoicing. Telematics that surface actionable insights instead of raw data help drivers understand their performance without adding to their responsibilities. 

When these systems work together, drivers spend less time on administrative tasks and more time doing what they’re paid to do: move freight. And when invoices process faster, cash flow improves for carriers and drivers alike. 

That’s the “cab to cash” concept in practice: reducing friction at every step of the workflow so drivers can focus on driving and get paid faster. 

Conclusion 

Will 2026 bring a driver crunch? Maybe. The CDL enforcement actions could tighten capacity significantly. Or they could stall out in court, leaving the driver labor pool largely unchanged. 

What’s clear is that carriers can’t wait for certainty before investing in their workforce through tech. The fleets that treat driver experience as a strategic priority and not a nice-to-have will be better positioned regardless of which way the market moves. 

Compensation will always matter. But in a market where bonuses aren’t an option, technology that makes drivers’ lives easier might be the most practical investment a carrier can make.