A year ago, we made five predictions about where the trucking industry was headed in 2025. Now, with the benefit of hindsight, let’s see how they played out. 

1. Market recovery without a boom. Verdict: ❌ 

As it turns out, even our tempered expectations were too optimistic. The anticipated rebound hasn’t materialized. Overcapacity remains stubbornly persistent, and freight volumes have stayed soft throughout the year.  

The sector continues what analysts describe as the longest supply/demand imbalance in recent memory, which has now stretched well past three years. Spot rates remain depressed, tariff uncertainty has weighed on demand, and most forecasters have pushed meaningful recovery projections into 2026. 

2. AI usage becoming more refined. Verdict: ✅ 

This prediction hit the mark. AI has moved well beyond the buzzword phase, with businesses deploying it across the freight lifecycle. C.H. Robinson, for instance, now uses generative AI to process quote requests, match loads to carriers, and automate pricing.  

As one industry expert put it, brokers are doing “some of the most interesting work” with AI in the supply chain, and the technology has become less of a “nice-to-have” and more of a competitive necessity. 

Carriers are leveraging AI for scheduling optimization, document processing, inspections, and real-time decision-making. 

3. Broker-carrier relationships becoming imperative. Verdict: 👍 

Unfortunately, the fraud epidemic we warned about has only intensified. Strategic theft has skyrocketed over 1,500% since 2021, and identity-driven attacks continue targeting both brokers and carriers. The silver lining is that the industry has responded with better tools and stronger partnerships.  

Companies like Highway now offer carrier identity verification to both sides of the transaction, while FMCSA is in the process of modernizing its registration system. 

4. Federal regulatory rollback helping, state regs persisting. Verdict: 🤔 

This one proved partially accurate, though the federal action was more dramatic than anticipated. Congress revoked California’s waivers for the Advanced Clean Trucks and Omnibus Low-NOx regulations, and CARB itself abandoned its Advanced Clean Fleets rule.  

However, California immediately doubled down with new executive orders, and the Clean Truck Check program continues enforcing emissions compliance. The patchwork remains as several states adhere to more stringent regs, but carriers have seen some breathing room at the federal level. 

5. Autonomous trucking entering a new era. Verdict: 💯 

We called it. In early December, California’s DMV released revised regulations that would finally lift the state’s ban on testing autonomous trucks over 10,000 pounds.  

Companies like Aurora and Kodiak are eyeing 2026 for California freeway operations, and Wall Street has signaled renewed confidence in driverless freight. Labor interests like the Teamsters continue pushing back, but the regulatory framework for coast-to-coast autonomous trucking is beginning to take shape. 

Conclusion 

While the freight market proved more immune to recovery than expected, technology adoption accelerated. Three of our five predictions landed, with AI maturing into operational necessity, autonomous trucking clearing critical regulatory hurdles, and federal rules providing selective relief despite state-level complexity.  

The ongoing market imbalances and fraud challenges remind us that market fundamentals matter, but the industry’s technological infrastructure is strengthening for whatever comes next.