Coming into 2025, there was widespread expectation that the freight market would finally turn a corner. Instead, uncertainty has reigned supreme. Would-be turnarounds in rates and volumes have been brief false starts, leaving the trucking industry to wonder whether we are approaching an uncomfortable new reality where stagnation becomes the default state. 

As 2025 winds down, several prominent topics have grabbed attention, from regulatory crackdowns to long-awaited policy changes. These subjects could change how carriers, drivers, and brokers operate and determine if market finally approaches something resembling normalcy in 2026.  

These four issues will be crucial to the trucking industry’s trajectory during the next 12 months. 

1. The status of non-domiciled CDL changes 

In recent months, the biggest story in trucking has been the DOT’s crackdown on non-domiciled CDL holders. The FMCSA’s interim final rule, issued in late September 2025, drastically restricted who is eligible for a non-domiciled CDL, limiting eligibility to holders of specific employment-based visas (H-2A, H-2B, or E-2). The agency estimates that approximately 194,000 non-domiciled drivers could exit the market over the next two years as their credentials come up for renewal. 

However, the rule has faced significant legal challenges.  

In November, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit granted an emergency stay, finding that the FMCSA likely failed to follow proper rulemaking procedures and did not demonstrate sufficient evidence that non-domiciled CDL holders pose a safety threat. The court noted that while these drivers represent about 5% of all CDL holders, they account for only approximately 0.2% of fatal crashes. 

Assuming Congress does not pass legislation like Rep. David Rouzer’s Non-Domiciled CDL Integrity Act to codify the restrictions into law, the fate of these rules will be decided in the courts.  

On one side, advocates want to ensure drivers from outside the U.S. are properly credentialed following several deadly accidents. On the other, opponents believe the crackdown will not improve safety and will harm both the supply chain and thousands of reputable drivers who have been in the industry for years. 

2. What will change rates and capacity? 

Low rates and excess capacity are two main reasons why the stubborn freight recession has persisted since 2022. These are also two areas that could be significantly affected by the CDL tightening, assuming the rules ultimately take effect. 

On a surface level, the CDL crackdown could be seen as an answer for the capacity imbalance. Craig Fuller of FreightWaves has drawn a straight line between the increase in non-domiciled CDLs since 2019, the new capacity that has flooded the market, and the recessionary rate environment. If 194,000 drivers exit over two years, the resulting capacity crunch could finally push rates upward. 

Conversely, analysts like DAT’s Ken Adamo and Michigan State professor Dr. Jason Miller believe the crackdown will not make a significant dent in overcapacity. They point to weak demand caused by a sluggish consumer economy and macroeconomic headwinds like high tariffs as the primary culprits for depressed rates. To wit, FTR’s freight forecast shows minimal growth through 2026, with significant improvement not expected until 2027. 

If Fuller is correct and the CDL rules proceed, lower capacity should lead to higher rates. If Adamo and Miller are right, the industry may have to keep waiting for broader economic trends to shift before relief arrives. 

3. Broker transparency and liability shifts 

Broker transparency was a major topic in 2024 before fading somewhat with the change in administration. However, newer rules are likely to see the light of day in 2026, making this a massive topic for the year ahead.  

The FMCSA’s broker transparency rule, introduced in November 2024 following petitions from OOIDA and the SBTC, has been pushed to May 2026 for a second Notice of Proposed Rulemaking. The rule would require brokers to maintain records electronically and provide them within 48 hours of request. This would close loopholes that currently allow many brokers to sidestep transparency requirements in contracts. 

The Supreme Court case Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, which the Court agreed to hear in October 2025, will also have major consequences for brokers and 3PLs. The case will determine whether federal law preempts state negligent-selection claims against freight brokers.  

The stakes are high: federal minimum insurance requirements for motor carriers have not been updated since 1980, when the threshold was set at $750,000. That figure would be approximately $4 million today if adjusted for inflation. As a result, catastrophic truck accidents often exceed available coverage, leaving accident victims with millions in unpaid damages and no recourse if brokers cannot be held liable for hiring unsafe carriers. 

Under a no-liability regime, brokers would have no financial incentive to vet carriers for safety. Critics warn that shielding brokers from negligent-selection suits could lead to more shell brokerages, greater fragmentation among carriers, and increased risk on American highways. Conversely, potential liability would push brokers to actively avoid unsafe carriers, improving overall highway safety.  

4. ELD updates 

Below the surface of the CDL and English Language Proficiency issues this year has been growing concern about how bad actors may be using fraudulent or inferior ELDs to bypass Hours of Service regulations, therefore undercutting reputable drivers, owner-operators, and carriers who follow the law. 

In December 2025, the FMCSA announced an overhaul of the ELD vetting process. The new system includes initial review of technical specifications, fraud detection through cross-checking applications against revoked and inactive lists, and a four-category approval system. The agency admitted that under the previous self-certification system, it was easier to register non-compliant devices or re-register devices that had been revoked.  

While this should reduce the most egregious abuses through better audit processes, it does not solve everything. The FMCSA lacks resources for field testing all ELDs, and industry groups like ATA and CVSA are pushing for third-party certification similar to Canada’s approach, where independent bodies verify device compliance before they can be sold. 

Conclusion 

Professionals in the trucking industry who have patiently been awaiting a recovery for the last three years are probably wanting to quote The Who and “won’t get fooled again.”  

Whether non-domiciled CDL restrictions survive legal challenges, how capacity and rates ultimately respond, what broker transparency requirements emerge, and how ELD enforcement evolves may help determine if the market finally stabilizes or continues its uncomfortable stagnation. For carriers, brokers, and drivers alike, adaptability and compliance will be essential as these four issues play out over the coming year.